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Engineering-Design-Reliability-Handbook.pdf

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ENGINEERING DESIGN RELIABILITY HANDBOOK
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Engineering Design Reliability HANDBOOK Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLCCRC PRESS Boca Raton ? London ? New York ? Washington, D.C. Engineering Design Reliability Edited by Efstratios Nikolaidis Dan M. Ghiocel Suren Singhal HANDBOOK Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use. Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, micro?lming, and recording, or by any information storage or retrieval system, without prior permission in writing from the publisher. All rights reserved. Authorization to photocopy items for internal or personal use, or the personal or internal use of speci?c clients, may be granted by CRC Press LLC, provided that $1.50 per page photocopied is paid directly to Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA. The fee code for users of the Transactional Reporting Service is ISBN 0-8493-1180-2/05/$0.00+$1.50. The fee is subject to change without notice. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. The consent of CRC Press LLC does not extend to copying for general distribution, for promotion, for creating new works, or for resale. Speci?c permission must be obtained in writing from CRC Press LLC for such copying. Direct all inquiries to CRC Press LLC, 2005 N.W. Corporate Blvd., Boca Raton, Florida 33431.Trademark Notice:Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identi?cation and explanation, without intent to infringe.Visit the CRC Press Web site at www.crcpress.com? 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?No claim to original U.S. Government works International Standard Book Number 0-8493-1180-2 Library of Congress Card Number 2004045850 Printed in the United States of America ?1 ?2 ?3 ?4 ?5 ?6 ?7 ?8 ?9 ?0 Printed on acid-free paperLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataEngineering design reliability handbook / edited by Efstratios Nikolaidis, Dan M. Ghiocel, ?Suren Singhal p. cm. ?Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8493-1180-2 (alk. paper) 1. Engineering design—Handbooks, manuals, etc. 2. Reliability (Engineering)—Handbooks, ?manuals, etc. I. Nikolaidis, Efstratios. II. Ghiocel, Dan M. III. Singhal, Suren. TA174.E544 2004 620'.00452—dc22 20040458501180_fm ?Page iv ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?vEngineering DesignReliability HandbookAbstractProbabilistic and other nondeterministic methods for design under uncertainty are becoming increasingly popular in the aerospace, automotive, and the ocean engineering industries because they help them design more competitive products. This handbook is an integrated document explaining the philosophy of nondeterministic methods and demonstrating their bene?ts on real life problems. ?This handbook is for engineers, managers, and consultants in the aerospace, automotive, civil, indus- trial, nuclear, and ocean engineering industries who are using nondeterministic methods for product design, or want to understand these methods and assess their potential. Graduate students and professors in engineering departments at U.S. and foreign colleges and universities, who work on nondeterministic methods, will ?nd this book useful too.This handbook consists of three parts. The ?rst part presents an overview of nondeterministic approaches including their potential, and their status in the industry, the government and the academia. Engineers and managers from companies, such as General Motors, General Electric, United T echnologies, and Boeing, government agencies, such as NASA centers and Los Alamos and Sandia National Labora- tories, and university professors present their perspectives about the status and the future of nondeter- ministic methods and propose steps for enabling the full potential of these methods. In the second part, the handbook presents recent advances in nondeterministic methods. First theories of uncertainty are presented. Then computational tools for assessing the uncertainty in the performance and the safety of a system, and for design decision making under uncertainty are presented. This part concludes with a presentation of methods for reliability certi?cation. The third part demonstrates the use and potential of nondeterministic methods by presenting real life applications in the aerospace, automotive and ocean engineering industries. In this part, engineers from the industry and university professors present their success stories and quantify the bene?ts of nonde- terministic methods for their organizations.1180_fm ?Page v ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?DedicationsTo my parents, George Nikolaidis and Theopisti NikolaidisEfstratios NikolaidisTo my father, Professor Dan Ghiocel President of the Romanian Academy of Technical Sciences Civil Engineering DivisionDan M. GhiocelTo my parents, my wife, Adesh, and children Rashi and Sara, and to all-too-important mentors, colleagues, and friendsSuren Singhal1180_fm ?Page vii ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?ixPrefaceIf one does not reflect, one thinks oneself master of everything; but when one does reflect, one realizes that one is a master of nothing.V oltaireIn today’s competitive business environment, decisions about product design involve signi?cant uncer- tainty. To succeed in this environment, one should replace traditional deterministic approaches for making design decisions with a new risk-based approach that uses rigorous models to quantify uncertainty and assess safety. Probabilistic and other nondeterministic methods for design under uncertainty are becoming increasingly popular in the aerospace, automotive, civil, defense and power industries because they help design safer and cheaper products than traditional deterministic approaches. The term “nondeterministic methods” refers to methods that account explicitly for uncertainties in the operating environment, the material properties and the accuracy of predictive models. The foundation of nondeterministic methods includes theories of probability and statistics, interval arithmetic, fuzzy sets, Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and Information-Gap theory. Nondeterministic methods have helped companies such as General Electric, United T echnologies, General Motors, Ford, DaimlerChrysler, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Motorola improve dramatically their competitive positions and save billions of dollars in engineering design and warranty costs. While nondeterministic methods are being implemented in the industry, researchers are making important advances on various fronts including reliability-based design, decision under uncertainty and modeling of uncertainty when data are scarce. Companies need to educate their designers and managers about the advantages and potential of non- deterministic methods. Professors need to educate their students about nondeterministic methods and increase the awareness of administrators about the importance and potential of these methods. T o respond to this need, we put together this handbook, which is an integrated document explaining the philosophy and the implementation of nondeterministic methods and demonstrating quantitatively their bene?ts. ?This handbook is for engineers, technical managers, and consultants in the aerospace, automotive, civil, and ocean engineering industries and in the power industry who want to use, or are already using, nondeterministic methods for product design. Professors and students who work on nondeterministic methods will ?nd this book useful too.This handbook consists of three parts. The ?rst part presents an overview of nondeterministic approaches including their potential and their status in the industry, academia and national labs. Engi- neers and managers from companies such as Boeing, United Technologies, General Motors and General Electric, government agencies, such as NASA, Los Alamos and Sandia National Laboratories of the Department of Energy, and university professors present their perspectives about the status and future of nondeterministic methods and propose steps for enabling the full potential of these methods. In the second part, the handbook presents the concepts of nondeterministic methods and recent advances in1180_fm ?Page ix ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?xthe area of nondeterministic methods including theories of uncertainty, computational tools for assessing and validating reliability, and methods for design decision-making under uncertainty. The third part demonstrates the use and potential of nondeterministic methods on applications in the aerospace, automotive, defense and ocean engineering industries. In this part, engineers from the industry and university researchers present success stories and quantify the bene?ts of nondeterministic methods for their organizations. A fundamental objective of the book is to provide opinions of experts with different background, experience and personality. Therefore, there are several chapters in the book written by experts from academia, national laboratories or the industry with diverse, and occasionally con?icting, views on some issues. We believe that presenting diverse opinions makes the book content richer and more informative and bene?ts the reader. ?We are grateful to all the authors who contributed to this book. We appreciate the considerable amount of time that the authors invested to prepare their chapters and their willingness to share their ideas with the engineering community. The quality of this book depends greatly on the quality of the contributions of all the authors. We also acknowledge CRC Press for taking the initiative to publish such a needed handbook for our engineering community. In particular, we wish to thank Cindy Carelli, Jay Margolis, Helena Redshaw, and Jessica Vakili for their continuous administrative and editorial support.Efstratios NikolaidisThe University of ToledoDan M. GhiocelGhiocel Predictive Technologies, Inc.Suren SinghalNASA Marshall Space Flight Center1180_fm ?Page x ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ?xiAbout the EditorsDr. Efstratios Nikolaidisis a professor of mechanical, industrial, and manufacturing engineering at the University of T oledo, Ohio. His research has focused on reliability-based design optimization of aerospace, automotive, and ocean structures, theories of uncertainty, and structural dynamics. He has published three book chapters, and more than 100 journal and conference papers, mostly on nondeterministic approaches.Dr. Dan M. Ghiocel is the Chief Engineering Scientist of Ghiocel Predictive Technologies Inc., in Rochester, New Y ork that is a small business specialized in nondeterministic modeling for high-complexity engineering problems. Since 2001, Dr. Ghiocel is also Adjunct Professor at Case Western Reserve Uni- versity, in Cleveland, Ohio. Dr. Ghiocel has accumulated a large experience in probabilistic approaches for civil nuclear facilities and jet engine systems. He is a member with leading responsibilities in several prestigious technical committees and professional working groups, including AIAA, SAE, and ASCE.Dr. Suren Singhalis a nationally and internationally recognized leader in the ?eld probabilistic methods and technology. He has initiated new committees, panels, and forums in nondeterministic and probabi- listic approaches. He has led development of state-of-the-art probabilistic technology and documents dealing with diverse aspects such as cultural barriers and legal issues.1180_fm ?Page xi ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ? ContributorsFrank AbdiAlpha STAR Corp Long Beach, California, U.S.A.Joshua AltmannVipac Engineers & Scientists Ltd. Port Melbourne, AustraliaAndre T. BeckUniversidade Luterana do Brazil Canoas, BrazilYakov Ben-HaimTechnion-Israel Institute of ?T echnology ?Haifa, IsraelJane M. BookerLos Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico, U.S.A.Jeffrey M. BrownU.S. Air Force ?AFRL Wright-Patterson Air ?Force Base, Ohio, U.S.A.Christian BucherBauhaus-University Weimar Weimar, GermanyJohn A. CafeoGeneral Motors Corporation Warren, Michigan, U.S.A.Brice N. CassentiPratt & Whitney East Hartford, Connecticut, U.S.A.Tina CastilloAlpha STAR Corporation Long Beach, California, U.S.A.Christos C. ChamisNASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, Ohio, U.SA.Kyung K. ChoiThe University of Iowa Iowa City, lowa, U.S.A.William (Skip) ConnonU.S. Army Aberdeen Test Center Aberdeen Proving Ground, ?Maryland, U.S.A.Thomas A. CruseVanderbilt University Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.A.Armen Der KiureghianUniversity of California Berkeley, California, U.S.A.Xuru DingGeneral Motors Corporation Warren, Michigan, U.S.A.Joseph A. DonndelingerGeneral Motors Corporation Warren, Michigan, U.S.A.Mike P. EnrightSouthwest Research Institute San Antonio, Texas, U.S.A.Simeon H. K. FitchMustard Seed Software San Antonio, Texas, U.S.A.Eric P. FoxVeros Software Scottsdale, Arizona, U.S.A.Dan M. FrangopolUniversity of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.Jeffrey S. FreemanThe University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee, U.S.A.Dan M. GhiocelGhiocel Predictive Technologies Pittsford, New York, U.S.A.James A. Grif?thsGeneral Electric Company Evendale, Ohio, U.S.A.1180_fm ?Page xiii ?Wednesday, November 10, 2004 ?12:56 PM Copyright 2005 by CRC Press LLC ? Mircea GrigoriuCornell University Ithaca, New York, U.S.A.Jon C. HeltonSandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, New Mexico, ?U.S.A.Luc J. HuyseSouthwest Research Institute San Antonio, Texas, U.S.A.Cliff JoslynLos Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico, U.S.A.Lambros S. KatafygiotisHong Kong University of Science ?and Technology Kowloon, Hong Kong Dimitri B. KececiogluThe University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona, U.S.A.Artemis KloessGeneral Motors Corporation Warren, Michigan, U.S.A.Robert V. LustGeneral Motors Corporation Warren, Michigan, U.S.A.Michael MackeBauhaus-University Weimar Weimar, GermanySankaran MahadevanVanderbilt University Nashville, Tennessee, U.S.A.Kurt MauteUniversity of Colorado Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.Laura A. McNamaraLos Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico, U.S.A.David MeaseUniversity of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania ?U.S.A.Robert E. MelchersThe University of Newcastle Callaghan, AustraliaZissimos P. MourelatosOakland University Rochester, Michigan, U.S.A.Ra? L. MuhannaGeorgia Institute

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