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市场需求驱动变速器产业发展_Market_Demands_Evolution_of_Drivetrain_Higher_EfficiencySAIC.pdf

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市场需求 驱动 变速器 产业 发展 _MARKET_DEMANDS_EVOLUTION_OF_DRIVETRAIN_HIGHER_EFFICIENCYSAIC
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2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 市场需求驱动变速器产业发展 Market Demands Evolution of Drivetrain --- 更环保、更舒适 Higher Efficiency, More Comfortable 高卫民 博士 Dr. Gao Weimin 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China Data source: State Statistics Bureau The State Information Center 8.3% 9.1% 10.0% 10.1% 11.3% 12.7% 14.2% 9.6% 9.2% 10.4% 9.2% 7.5% 33.3% 62.8% 65.0% 13.9% 26.2% 29.5% 23.7% 7.1% 51.6% 36.3% 10.3% ? Global economy declined, European debt crisis continued and exports decreased ? The self-growth ability of SMEs is poor ? Due to the deepening control of real estate, the investment shrink dramatically. ? The target of energy saving and emission reduction will affected the growth of industry ? Monetary policies adjustment leads to the increase of credit loan. ? Structured tax reduction will increase income as well as stimulate consumption ? If economy decreases rapidly, the positive financial policies will stimulate the economy. Unfavorable Factors Favorable Factors ? 2012 ” ” The 2012 macro economy will growth steadily and healthily with the signs of a “soft lan d ing “. ? Because of the inflation , exports industry ,credit debit and the situation of SMEs are in a severe situation. ? The correlation between economy and auto market is more close. GDP 7.5% Macro-economic growth slows down and GDP growth rate expects 7.5% GDP Correlation between GDP and auto market PV Market Growth Rate GDP ( ) PV Market Volume(10,000) GDP Growth Rate 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 195 190 183 176(7.6L/100km) 162(6.9L/100km) 153 143 136 127 117(5.0L/100km) 217 210 203 193(8.2L/100km) 184 173 162 153 144(6.1L/100km) 130 130 130 130(5.5L/100km) 130 130 130 130 95(4.0L/100km) 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CO2 Emissions on MVEG (gCO2/km) China China (Proposed) US EU CAFE CAFE ? CAFE 2015 2020 CAFE regulatory limit in NA is more lenient than that in China from 2015 to 2020 ? CAFE Even though regulatory limit in EU is more stringent than that in China, It is easier in Europe to meet the regulation with high Diesel engine and MT share ? CAFE China market will be facing the most severe CAFE Challenge! 油耗法规越来越严格 Fuel Economy Facing Severe Challenge Phase 3 CAFE Phase 4 CAFé Prediction 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 根据上牌量统计的 分 类型 变速箱 数据 Data Analysis by License Plate Summary 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 MT DCT CVT AT AMT 0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 AMT AT CVT DCT MT 5 种主要类型变速箱的年度上 牌数量 5 main type TM annual volume by licensee volume 5 种主要类型变速箱的上牌比 例 5 main type TM annual volume by licensee volume 小结 Summary : 1. 手 动 变速箱 的比例 总体上 呈明显 下降趋 势,但 绝对数 量仍然 很大, 超过50% ; MT proportion is decreasing in the overall volume, but still maintain a big absolute volume, more than 50%. 2. 自 动 变速箱 中传统AT 还处于 绝对多 数地位 ;DCT 增长很 快,CVT 近今 年也有 快速增 长的势 头;AMT 已有 应用尝试 ; Step AT dominates the automatic transmission in the volume standpoint; DCT is growing fast; and CVT has trend to increase quickly too. Several OEMs tried to introduce AMT applications in the market. 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China Market Demands 市 场 需 求高效的传动系统 Higher Efficiency Drivetrain 舒适的驾乘体验 Comfortable Driving Experience 自动控制的高 效系统 High Efficient Automatic Drivetrain 混合动力/电驱 动 Hybrid/Electrific ation 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 技术路线? Technical Solution? AT DCT CVT AMT . . . 观点:目前看不出哪种技术一定会最终完全胜出,合适自己的也许就是最好的; Comments: Hard to say which type of technology will win. Maybe each OEM will develop its own suitable strategy. 传统技术优势 Traditional Technical Advantage 车辆类型 Vehicle Type 客户驾驶习惯 Regional Idiosyncrasies 市场的地理特点 Market Geography considerations … 降低油耗和排放 换档质量、加速、前舱布置、安全 成本、技术风险 Fuel Economy/ Emission Shift Quality/Performance/ Packaging/ Safety Cost / Investment vs. Technical Risk 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 群雄并起 So Many Players contribute China Market --- 合资车企进行国产化乃至本土参与开发: 如长安福特、上海通用、 大众等 JV OEMs work hard to localize, local resource involves some development phases, such as Chang’an Ford, SGM, VW, and etc. --- 内资车企加大投入,目标指向产品+ 核心技术能力: 如比亚迪 、吉利、江淮、奇瑞 、上 汽等 Local OEMs put a lot to transmission programs, to develop own products as well as key technologies, such as BYD, Geely, JAC, Chery, SAIC, and etc. --- 整机厂商纷至沓来: 爱信、 采埃孚、格特拉克、加特可、盛瑞等 Transmission Manufacturers play an important role , such as Aisin, ZF, Getrag, JATCO, Shengrui, and etc. --- 核心供应商、技术服务公司助力发展: 艾尔维 、安东诺夫、博格华纳、博世、大陆、 FEV 、Hofer 、 吉孚、里卡多、 李斯特、舍弗勒等 Key suppliers and technical consulting companies are contributing the development, such as IAV, Antonov, BorgWarner, Bosch, Continental, FEV, Hofer, GIF, Ricardo, AVL, Schaeffler, and etc. 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 几点提醒 Several Key Points 1 、练习基本功 Improve Fundamental Capabilities --- 手动变速箱在效率提升方面可 以作为 ,并可 利用此 类项目 培养正 向开发 理念和 流 程; Manual Transmission is worth of improving efficiency, and the programs might be a good practice to develop forward engineering philosophy and process; --- Math-Lab-Road 的开发验证方法和工具; Math-Lab-Road develop and validation capabilities and process; --- 零部件- 子系统- 系统台架- 整车开发验证方法和流程; Component-Sub-system-System-In-Car development and validation techniques and process; --- 质量工具的自觉使用:培养成习惯; Design Quality tools should be practiced into the program : DFMEA; DFSS; BEST PRACTISE and etc. 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 2 、整车集成 技术: 变速箱的优缺点通过整车技术来发扬或是弥补 --- 比较 容易被忽视,但必须时刻 牢记; Vehicle Integration: Each transmission technology has own advantages and disadvantages, the vehicle may have way to make it even better or overcome it --- Easy to be forgotten, need to remind it as every phase of program; 3 、创新的意识/行为: 说的再多也不为过; Innovation : Keep Mind and Execute ; 4 、风险控制 能力: 项目进展的每个阶段都有正确的流程以及交付 物,从而知道是 否能够到达 目标 。 Risk Control: every program milestone has correct process to evaluate the deliverables, which can know where you are vs. where the target should be. 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China 上 海 汽 车 乘用车公 司 变 速器产品 规 划 上 海 大 众 汽车变 速 器 产 品规划 上 海 通 用 汽车变 速 器 产 品规划 2012 变速箱 研讨会- 中 国汽车 工程学 会 2012 TM Symposium China-SAE China FISITA2012 世界 汽车年 会 :先 进变速 器及动 力 传动 系统 专题 FISITA2012 World Automotive Congress: Advanced Transmission and Drivetrain System theme 1. FISITA 是法语“国际汽车工程学会 联合会”的简称;2012年年会由中国汽车工程学会主 办,将于2012 年11月27 日-30日在北京召开大会; FISITA is a French abbreviation, as International Auto Engineering Association . FISITA2012 Congress is held by SAE-China Nov 27-30 2012 in Beijing. 2. 先进变速器及动力传动系统作为年会中的一个专题,已完成论文摘要评审工作:32 篇论 文将进行汇报交流;另34 篇论文将进行张贴书面交流; Advanced Transmission and Drivetrain System is one theme of the congress. All abstracts of this theme were scored. 32 papers will be oral presented and another 34 papers will be posted. 3. 这些论文从内容上将涵盖了变速箱发展的方方面面,并来自全球十几个国家和地区,包 括中、美、德、日、英、法、韩等发达汽车市场国家; Those papers will discuss transmission technologies current status and trends. The authors were from more than ten countries including China, USA, Germany, Japan, UK, French, Korea and etc. 4. 欢迎大家参与十一月的盛会,官网 http://www.fisita2012.com Welcome to join FISITA2012 Congress in Nov, Beijing, http://www.fisita2012.com/
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